Month: March 2020

March 31 2020, 12:07

Interesting facts unearthed. In the USA – ~10 million flights per year, transporting 1 billion passengers to/from 13,000 airports, of which about 4,700 are public, the rest are private. In Russia, about 800,000 flights, ~120 million passengers per year, of which about 70% are domestic, and 30% are international. Link about the 800,000 flights in Russia – in the comments from Sergey Sitnikov.

Thus, the USA exceeds Russia by 8.5 times in passenger flow, and by 86 times in the number of airports.

I rewrote the post, originally it was in the form of a WTF question because the numbers from different sources showed exactly the opposite. Thanks for the comments.

Presumably, this could somehow be considered in discussions on the speed of COVID spread in the USA and Russia.

March 30 2020, 14:14

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam announces a Stay At Home Order after seeing people crowd some Virginia beaches this weekend.

“The city hall was furious when they saw on ‘Russia-24’ videos of Muscovites casually enjoying barbecues”

So, now we’ve got a strict stay-at-home order. https://www.fredericksburg.com/news/state_region/northam-to-issue-a-stay-at-home-order-for-virginia/article_a05207f6-72a6-11ea-a1e4-8b863df22db4.html

March 30 2020, 00:35

This is very useful information from the WHO. The current understanding is that this type of virus is mainly transmitted through surfaces and large droplet fractions of biological aerosols – it’s a cloud of particles from the mouth and nose when sneezing, coughing, or even talking. I think the WHO thought long and hard before making such a somewhat dangerous point public. https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

If the scientists are right, then it seems the risk of contracting COVID is virtually nil if a person goes outside, walks to the store, uses a self-checkout, and washes their hands there in the bathroom upon exit. Probably, part of my audience won’t understand the part about the bathroom at the exit and the automatic checkouts… well, then keep about two meters from the cashier. It’s very important for many elderly people to still visit the store, so it’s worth knowing what to fear most. Don’t talk to anyone closer than two meters, don’t touch anything, don’t bite your nails, don’t pick your nose, don’t scratch your eyes, love soap.

I don’t quite understand the physics of the process. Can someone explain? Why doesn’t the fine droplet fraction “work”? That is, in what theoretical situations might it not work? Why can the measles or chickenpox virus spread through fine aerosols and linger in the air for an hour, but COVID-19 cannot?

March 29 2020, 10:34

EPAM has proposed an open-source project called DIY protective face masks “made from readily available materials” or for small-scale production in situations where there is an acute shortage of masks (as is currently the case in Italy). The base material is a polypropylene filter used in replaceable cartridges for air conditioners. Demonstrated on a model that filters particles from 1 micron in size. The virus is smaller, but masks from the nearest pharmacy are no better, and this alternative is for when there are no masks at all (and there are still cartridges for air conditioners 😉

https://solutionshub.epam.com/solution/gentl-mask

March 29 2020, 01:19

I don’t know how it feels in Russia, but from here it seems like a mix of “War of the Worlds” and “The Hunger Games”. Absolutely all media worldwide is reporting on the losses and successes against the common enemy. People at home in the evenings count the losses and rank the countries that have taken the lead. “The USA has overtaken Italy! The USA has topped 100,000! The first affected infant! Trump sends a floating hospital to New York!”. The only things missing are pictures of tripods with Martians inside and tanks on the streets (God forbid, of course). Millions of people perceive it as a show (especially if it has not yet affected their country and/or their friends and relatives).

My second thought – at some point, interest in the coronavirus will start to wane simply because everyone – both readers and writers – will realize that the topic has run its course. It will just become something mundane. Like Dostoevsky said, “The scoundrel of a man gets used to everything.” I am sure that if they do not find a proper solution, they will accept some kind of workaround, reopen the borders, and continue living in whatever conditions they can manage. Yes, some people will die, but people are dying now from various things we cannot influence. They will stop counting this statistic, and the focus will shift to something new.

My third thought – today it’s this virus. Tomorrow – a bacteria. Today – we need ventilators and lack intensive care units. Tomorrow we will need surgeries, and there will be shortages of operating rooms. Fundamentally, being prepared for such scenarios is impossible. And now we are dealing with a virus that doesn’t survive outside a host from hours to a couple of days, which requires almost a spit in the face to infect (aerosol is not yet confirmed), which has an R0 of 2 to 3, which only has up to two weeks of incubation period, and a mortality rate of a few percent. There are many exotic diseases already where each of these listed components is significantly higher. Mortality under 50%. Contagion like measles or smallpox. Incubation periods of several months, during which infection occurs. So, we are all still “lucky”.