Month: April 2020

@[100000951008959:2048:Oleg Bunin] and Avito have opened up even more records from past Ontico conferences, specifically from Saint AppsConf 2019, HighLoad++ 2019, DevOpsConf 2019, FrontendConf 2019, Product Fest 2019, TeamLead Conf 2020, GolangConf 2019, UseData Conf 2019. Highly recommended, very interesting.

This gadget creates a 350 microsecond delay at the IEX exchange to avoid front-running of orders for high-frequency algo-trading. Curious how it creates: inside — a coil of 61 km of fiber optics and.. that’s all.

As if 2020 wasn’t already lacking UFOs!

I will leave my forecast on the development of the situation with the coronavirus. I hesitate to name the country, let’s see how things will develop.

The official number of cases will decline sooner than the actual number. Because it’s not working out, and you can’t shut down the economy for so long because then people will start dying of hunger and cold (at some point you will need to invent a story “why we opened the business”. And this story has to be convincing. If it “doesn’t work”, then it will be chaos, and people will come out with pitchforks. But if the story isn’t launched and the business is kept closed too long, people will come out with pitchforks anyway. Yet with the story, there’s at least a chance that a miracle happens, and everything somehow fixes itself)

Therefore, the informal strategy chosen will be “show a decline, even if there isn’t one”. If the gap between real and official numbers fails to close for a long time, the consequences for the country will be catastrophic regardless of whether you deceived the population or not. But if it quickly zeroes out, then “winners aren’t judged”.

Moreover, there will be few viable ways to prove the discrepancy, and those who try will be labeled as fake news spreaders causing panic, and they will be punished. To reduce the gap, causes of death and diagnoses will begin to be counted very selectively. In the end, the actual number will eventually decline, but later, and some people will die during the pandemic, only part of whom will be recognized as consequences of the virus. Most likely, high mortality will be explained by the presence of chronic diseases in the population, caught decades ago. The risk of infection will be associated with the population not following recommendations.

Businesses will open, but at the same time, the requirements for making them safer will increase. The requirements will be difficult to meet, but no one will actually expect to achieve 100%. For example, a store in the center of a large city may not be able to control the people queuing outside, if the territory doesn’t belong to it but is common with “neighbors”. Ultimately, businesses will always end up being violators, but since so many will violate, there will be a choice of whom to punish urgently and who might still work a couple more years, so the risk will remain with the “uncooperative” and “disloyal”.

Restrictions (all related to the virus) will be lifted significantly slower than business openings. The decrease in the number of cases will be explained by “self-isolation” and “effective sealing of the country’s borders and its parts”. They will wait for a second wave, justifying the decision that it’s too early to lift restrictions. People will get used to asking for permission to move within the city, between cities, and between countries, and gathering in groups (which will automatically solve the rally issue) will start to be seen as normal. All who disrupt the order will be marked as violators, to have the possibility to quarantine those necessary and those not necessary.

A vaccine won’t be made for at least another year, if ever. Simply because — if herd immunity displaces the virus, a vaccine (at least for the current strain) won’t be needed. Political implications will be woven in: no one wants to later admit that the citizens of country A were saved by country B providing the vaccine. Most likely, when a vaccine is made, its “recipe” will be public, but there won’t be money left in the economy to produce the required number of vaccines.

But I think that over time, a cheap antibody test will be developed, and employees with a “I’ve recovered” certificate will be valued higher than those without one. Informally, but still this point will be taken into account. It’s better to put someone on the checkout who won’t kick the bucket a week later due to a “workplace injury”.

Most likely, there will be difficulties with immigration and tourism. When flights resume, testing will be among the actions required before departure (and the cost will be borne by the passenger).

Large industries affected (like airlines, etc.) will become more state-driven. Small companies will be bought out by major players, likely just for real estate and brand. Salaries in some sectors will drop, and the labor market will shift to favor employers.

These are my thoughts. I hope I am wrong. I will check in about six months.

Just tackled a problem with Liza (solved it). Here’s a brain teaser for you. No peeking online! Given the side of a square, you need to find the area of the shaded part. The recipe includes the formula for the area of a circle (obviously) and a bit of trigonometry (not so obvious, but necessary).

I want to promote the wonderful channel of Artem @[1476954747:2048:Artem Lyskov], where he reads great poems (and not only).

Once, as Nadya and I were walking, I asked her — why isn’t the genre of poetry well-represented on YouTube? Well… rap doesn’t count. It’s both new and old at the same time, and it can “take off” if presented well with quality content. I suddenly thought of Filatov from the contemporary scene. And no one else. The genre has vanished. Nadya then replied that I am following a feed of IT people, while in her humanities feed, poetry appears much more frequently. And that today, there are far more opportunities for self-expression, and people can’t focus on everything at once, and popular genres “win”. She reminded me of Artem. He has been in my feed for a long time, and I joyfully listen to these recordings. Thanks, Artem! Lately, they have been coming out about once a week. I hope it lasts.

I’ve known Artem for a long time, and we meet from time to time. He is genuine in these videos, just as he is in life. Currently, videos with his poetry have just a few hundred views, and I think that’s unfairly few 🙂

Highly recommended.

How to get through a crisis

While riding my bike today, I was contemplating which governance model would be more successful: one where everything is specified down to the comma, and the state negotiates with the people to live by laws considering absolutely everything (fifty hefty volumes), or it negotiates that it will decide “by the rules of the game” but tries to be fair.

And here’s what I thought. When managing a state or a large company, any simple laws or rules are always better than complex ones, no matter how imperfect these simple rules might be. I came across a Churchill quote, “If you have 10,000 regulations, you destroy all respect for law”. Lao Tzu also said that the more legislative restrictions we have, the poorer we are.

Interesting confirmation of this is found in the quarantine. After all, the main goal is not the quarantine, but to reduce social contact. Staying at home contributes to this. But how would it be fair?

For instance, you can go outside if you wear a respirator that 100% protects you and others, or wear a special beacon sensor around your neck that loudly and annoyingly screams if another such sensor is detected within a 2-meter radius. Automatically, in a nearly empty city, people would maintain distance. No respirator or sensor – a fine. Such respirators exist (for example, 3M 6800, costs about 200 bucks). Sensors aren’t there yet, but they could be quickly conceived and cheaply manufactured. But no government will do this because it automatically creates new problems. For example, people with respirators would periodically be beaten by those without, because they also want to go outside but don’t have $200.

But obviously, such measures won’t be introduced because they are complicated and create new problems. Therefore, it’s easier for the government to say that you can’t leave the house at all, otherwise – a fine. And in each specific situation, judge by the circumstances.

This is how it works with the police in the USA. Every officer must have serious reasons for an independent court if it comes to that. But then another problem arises: people will dispute everything. To avoid this and to prevent every minimally questionable case from going to court, court proceedings start to cost more, and then lawyers, legal offices appear on the scene, adding their own interest in case they win the case. But despite all the drawbacks, the system becomes balanced. It becomes too expensive for the police to keep incompetents on staff, leading to a positive selection.

For example, if it’s an 80-year-old granny limping to buy bread, the police should not fine her but offer volunteer assistance – this raises the police’s respect rating. If the police stop a guy who explains nothing, is rude, and cites the constitution and “know your place,” in my view, the officer should press a button, sending the audio or video recording from his wearable recorder somewhere to the cloud, he reviews it at the station, decides to issue a fine, and the guy can then prove he’s not to blame, and shouldn’t pay the fine by mail. If he disagrees – let him pay the lawyers, and together with them, they will listen to the audio or video from the cloud and decide if anything in the police officer’s actions was incorrect. If they prove it – the officer’s “karma” worsens (up to dismissal). If not – the government gets money from him for the upkeep of the courts and police (and lawyers).

Probably a very controversial opinion. Criticize what’s wrong with it.

On sprosi.d3, a guy shares useful experience about COVID.

Important points here: 1) young 2) kind of an athlete 3) American hospital 4) no serious consequences, but interesting facts and what it all looks like before, during, after.

Comments are no less important than the main post – there the guy and his wife actively contribute

https://sprosi.d3.ru/nemnogo-pozitiva-kovidopozitiva-na-samom-dele-net-1965182/

Traveled 115 km today. Mclean-Purcellville-Mclean. In the photo – the end (or the beginning) of the Washington & Old Dominion Railroad Trail. I’ve long wanted to reach the end of this 60-km bike trail (the other end faces towards Washington, it’s three times closer, and I’m already bored of it). Now I have an achievement