March 13 2020, 20:38

What would be really useful is the probability of dying from COVID-19 in a specific place at a specific time for a specific age considering coexisting diseases.

It seems that there is enough raw data for this. Maybe it exists somewhere and we can play with it ourselves?

For example, there is a population density map. Of course, New York has a density of 10,000 people per square kilometer. In our area, it’s 700 people/sq. km. In Milan – 2,000 people per sq. km.

What we have

* A = unknown ratio of all sick/total population, and it is definitely much less than 1

* B = unknown ratio of known sick/all sick, and it is definitely much less than 1

* C = known ratio of deceased/known sick, and for my age it turns out to be 0.02%, which means every 500th out of the known infected.

If B = 0.5 (meaning, half of the infected do not know it’s COVID-19), then every thousandth dies. If B=0.25, then every two thousandth of the sick and so on. How to calculate B is unclear, but there is some methodology available at the link. https://m.habr.com/ru/post/491974/

More about the spread. Understandably, it spreads fastest in hypothetical metro during rush hour. Closing the metro is difficult, it will lead to rampant growth. But how quickly does it spread in places with a density 10 times lower than New York? where there is no metro. Like our places. It is likely that the virus will not work with the necessary speed in such places to maintain the rates, and the rates will drop. But where is the actual threshold of density above which to worry?

Then, there is no distribution by diseases anywhere. Let’s suppose a healthy person of my age gets infected and another similar one but with diabetes. It is claimed that diabetes greatly increases the likelihood of a fatal outcome. How then to calculate the probability? How many of the deceased had comorbidities and how many did not? Maybe we should have calculated mortality separately for healthy and unhealthy? Maybe for a healthy person, mortality is lower than that of the flu?

March 12 2020, 01:17

Commerce Cloud Tips & Tricks for developers:

There is a well-known complexity: how to frequently update a large volume of products (in a complex data model). As soon as the issue of multithreading and clustering arises, questions about how to manage locks, which locking mechanism to choose—optimistic or pessimistic, etc., also emerge. In developing for SAP Commerce Cloud, you also encounter the peculiarities of the built-in ORM, which sometimes doesn’t behave as expected. I recently dealt with this, found the right approach, and described it in an article. The solution is very simple but might save someone time and effort.

Many people ask me – why do I share knowledge that took me hours or days to acquire. It’s simple: knowing the solution (which the article is about) gives a hypothetical five points to an architect, but knowing the path to this solution gives a hypothetical fifty. And yet, the path to the solution is not something you can easily detail in blogs and on the internet.

https://hybrismart.com/2020/03/12/concurrent-update-of-sap-commerce-cloud-item-relations/

March 09 2020, 09:57

Once on television, a deathly pale Minister of Finance appeared and declared:

— The financial crisis will not affect us. Because. I’m telling you for sure.

The population, knowing a thing or two about official statements, swore quietly and went off to stockpile salt, matches, and sugar.

The next day, an extremely embarrassed Minister of Trade appeared on TV and said:

— The supplies of bread and essential goods allow us to proudly state that neither hunger nor commodity shortages will threaten us. Here are the figures.

“Oh!”, said the population and bought additional flour and cereals.

The Minister of Agriculture, for emphasis, danced on the podium and joyfully said:

— Unprecedented harvest! Hopes for export! We are reviving! The granaries are bursting!

“Wow, really!”, the population was horrified and rushed to convert their savings into foreign currency.

— Real estate prices will fall! A penthouse for every student! In the near future! – the Minister of Construction said without a grimace.

— What is going on, eh? – the population howled and rushed to buy kerosene, kerosene lamps, wood, and coal.

— A modern army on a contractual basis. Starting tomorrow. And grenades of a new system. They don’t have these in the world yet. — the Minister of Defense stated solemnly. — Well, why not? There’s plenty of money. Reserves, stockpiles, and generally a surplus.

— Mommy!… – the population squeaked and began digging dugouts.

— Everything is awe-some! Do you understand?! AWE-SOME!!! – the President insisted. — We could have built communism today already. The only thing stopping us — we’d all have nothing to do. So you can sleep peacefully! It doesn’t get more stable! Pensioners are buying caviar by the bucket! I foresee a qualitative leap, surge, and jump. And quantitatively – a full run! Taking giant strides towards prosperity and wealth. The Caribbean is getting closer. From here we shall threaten the world. A hundred and thirty centners of roses from each flower bed. We’re going to reduce milk output. Cows can’t carry their udders around. The population is outraged by the cheapness. South America is begging to join us as a state-run farm. Hurrah!

— What on earth are you preparing, you beasts?! – the population shouted and just in case changed into all its clean clothes.

M. Zhvanetsky