Hi, I'm Rauf Aliev.

Please message me privately about options for transferring sums with two zeros to Russia via bank account transfers within the USA? Ultimately, I need the money on a Sberbank card. I can transfer via PayPal or Zelle. Regularly would be better, but a one-time transfer works too. This is usually relevant for those needing a reverse transfer, from rubles to dollars. I have some urgency here.

I thought it might be interesting for my acquaintances who are not from the USA. We are currently driving from Washington to Chicago for a couple of days, which is an 11-hour drive one way. We usually stop at service areas like this along the way. There are ten in Ohio and four in Indiana just along our route. They are usually quite crowded, but now it’s not only Thanksgiving but also nine in the evening, so it was convenient to make a short video. I’m not much of a vlogger, so don’t be too hard on me;)

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I’ve figured out how to explain the situation with OpenAI and why some are stressed about the uncontrollable improvement in AI quality and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Imagine a scenario where a startup releases an anti-aging drug tomorrow. I don’t know, something like Altos Labs, or Agex. And then it becomes secretive – not sharing key parts of this discovery with the scientific community, showing astounding results on small mammals, and even though testing on humans might take a century, initial results already demonstrate that the organism rejuvenates.

Of course, this pleasure isn’t available to everyone because the demand is astronomical while production is expensive and complex. And here the company works on producing this super-drug on a larger scale.

All simulations indicate that such progress eventually leads to the end of civilization. We can of course argue that simulations are dumb and incorrect, while people are rational and conscious, but history shows that no large group has ever acted in a truly conscious manner. Roughly one percent pushes forward, and the rest either endure, do not interfere, or assist, though rationally, they should only be helping. Second, all simulations show that as a result of this anti-aging drug, nothing disastrous will happen in the lifetime of anyone currently living. So, we need to think at least about our children and grandchildren, although again, the issue involves belief, as some think that our grandchildren’s grandchildren will migrate to live on Mars. What should an intelligent society do to ensure that people don’t kill each other 200 years from now?

There are two options – either ensure the anti-aging drug never comes into existence (consciously refuse progress) or formulate principles for its rational and fair application. How long will such principles last? How to explain to some that it’s just as fair for them to die tomorrow as it is for that millionaire scientist not to die because he deserves the drug. If an agreement is not reached, they will take up pitchforks in sheer numbers, and ultimately, humanity will regress hundreds of years.

The same is true with OpenAI and AGI. Nobody knows what to do with it, but many think that if we don’t reflect on it, the problem is inevitable, and if we do ponder, it might not be.

Sitting, working. Suddenly something crows loudly throughout the apartment. I yell to Nadya – what’s that? She says: I don’t know what is crowing over there. I almost felt like getting back to work; after all, who knows what’s crowing in our three-story house. I was about to give up guessing, although it was indeed weirdly loud. Then I remembered.

About two years ago, I bought a doorbell. And I plugged it into a socket (imagine how that would have sounded 20 years ago!). The button, powered by a battery, was stuck on the door with double-sided tape. Bought it, installed it in a minute, and forgot about it. And finally, someone rang it!

A girl at the door was asking how we feel about the Virginia VCEA law, stating that part of the money we pay for electricity would go towards building all sorts of windmills and demolishing thermal power plants. I say hmm well great, why not. She goes – but the bills are insane. Basically, she was leading up to the topic of whether to install solar panels on my roof using their services, and in case of surplus, they would even pay us for generation. I’m somewhat familiar with this topic, but sorry, not this time. It’s actually a solid topic, just that the return on investment takes 10-15 years at best and then the profits start trickling in very slowly. I wasn’t taught to plan that far ahead, but Americans often go for it. Good for them, really.

Update: The overly proactive OpenAI board of directors has been disbanded. New people, new rules, a new sign on the basement door. Sam is back

I wonder if you happen to know who is currently the number one in significantly enhancing photo resolution by “drawing” missing details through Machine Learning? I know about ESRGAN, GFPGAN, but they work quite poorly. It would be interesting to find out why there isn’t remarkable progress in this area? After all, there are many high-resolution faces, or a lot can be done, and it seems quite logical to train the system on a before-and-after basis. The result of ESRGAN from the first blurry picture in the comments is really far from what is desired.

Good channel. Peter Santenello travels to various interesting places and interacts with locals. He has a series about the Amish, and this video about Mormons (LDS). Specifically, in Utah, there are areas with their high concentration, and there is a lot of uniqueness.

To add something interesting – there are almost no bars or coffee shops, a large and very affordable Christian university BYU with 30,000 students, among the younger people there is a practice called NCMO – non-committal make-out, which are meetings (say through Tinder or any other method) for one day or night without breaking the “law of chastity” and with the right to forget pompously the next day as if nothing happened.

Link below

It is said that Sam was fired by the board of directors after they opened a door labeled “Top Secret GPU Room – DO NOT ENTER” and discovered 21,700 people in the basement of the OpenAI headquarters manually answering all the ChatGPT questions

Update: the curious board of directors has ceased to exist

I created a calculator that shows the profitability of installment plans or loans considering inflation. In the US, the inflation forecast for the coming years is between 2 to 2.5%. In 2022, for example, it was 8%.

If you follow the link below and enter an amount, the number of months, and zero for an installment plan or something greater than zero for a loan—be it for a house, a phone, or education—in the frame, you’ll see the difference between money paid based on its value today and money calculated based on its value at the end of the period. For instance, if you buy a car for $50,000 on installment over 3 years and there’s an alternative to pay it outright now, the installment saves almost $2,000 if the inflation forecasts (2.5%) match reality. And if inflation shoots up again to 8%, the difference would be as much as $6,000. However, if it’s not an installment but a loan, the higher the rate, the less the interest, of course.

For example, in the case of buying a home for $450,000 with a 30-year loan at 3% and 2.5% inflation, the difference between the money at the end of the period and today reaches $23,714. This raises the question of whether it is beneficial to make a large down payment.

By the way, my house has a fixed rate of 3%, not a variable rate, as is often the case. I bought the house in 2021, so the 8% inflation in 2022 has already affected me. Inflation expectations by the end of 2023 are 4.5%. Nobody offers 3% now; the average mortgage rate is now 7-8%. I figured that just on inflation, savings for the house were about $1,400. Of course, this is good only when income growth accounts for inflation. It was even more on that front when I timed it right when 3% fixed was still possible, but now we’re talking about inflation.

Those who understand economics—is this sound reasoning?