Tag: books

Luck Over Talent: Decoding the True Drivers of Success | February 08 2025, 00:51

A lengthy post on how to achieve success! For free! No registration or SMS required! I just stumbled upon a scientific study proving that the role of chance in success is greater than that of talent. And this resonated with my belief that successful people are successful because they are lucky, not because they are extraordinarily talented, smart, or unusual. Rather on the contrary, they are so because they’ve been lucky. Note, not because they are “lucky ducks,” but because they’ve been lucky. These are different things.

Let me argue this. There’s a study “Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure,” authors Alessandro Pluchino, Alessio Emanuele Biondo, and Andrea Rapisarda. Yes, the funny part is that Alessandro received the Ig Nobel Prize for this work (“a symbolic award for scientific discoveries that ‘first make people laugh, and then make them think'”). They used agent-based modeling to analyze the contributions of talent and luck to success.

As initial data, they took supposedly objective things: talent and intelligence are distributed among the population according to the normal (Gaussian) distribution, where most people have an average level of these qualities, and extreme values are rare, while wealth, often considered an indicator of success, follows the Pareto distribution (power law), where a small number of people own a significant portion of the resources, and the majority owns only a small share.

Further, the authors developed a simple model in which agents (1000) with varying levels of talent are exposed to random events over the hypothetical 40 years, which could be either favorable (luck) or unfavorable (misfortune). Each such event affects the “capital” of an agent, serving as a measure of his success.

Result: Though a certain level of talent is necessary to achieve success, it is often not the most talented individuals who become the most successful, but those with an average level of talent who experience more fortunate events. There is a strong correlation between the number of fortunate events and the level of success: the most successful agents are also the luckiest.

My observation of how the world works completely agrees with these conclusions. You just need to do things so that you’re more fortunate. That’s it. Don’t try to be the smartest—it doesn’t help as much as the following things do:

1) Being in environments where important events occur. Silicon Valley for startuppers. New York for financiers. Hollywood for actors. If an environment increases the chance of meeting “key” people, it makes sense to place oneself in that environment.

2) Creating more points of contact with the world and maintaining them. Running a blog, writing articles, giving interviews. Attending conferences, participating in communities. Calling and writing to acquaintances and semi-acquaintances, especially when such calls and letters are potentially important to them. Expanding the number of contacts—even if 99% are useless, 1% can change your life.

3) Increasing the number of attempts. The more projects, the higher the chance that one of them will “hit.” The best example – venture funds: they invest in dozens of startups, knowing that success will come from only one. Artists, writers, musicians create hundreds of works, knowing that only one will become a hit.

Unfortunately, for this point, you need to love your work. So choose a task where attempts are enjoyable.

Organizational psychologist Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic in his book “Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders?” asserts that luck accounts for about 55% of success, including such factors as the place of birth and family wealth. This is true, but since you are sitting on Facebook on an iPhone with a cup of coffee and not herding cows in a loincloth in Africa, you already have pretty good initial conditions.

From here, an interesting conclusion — is it necessary to study at a university to achieve success in life? Look at the points above. Being in the right environment, creating more points of contact, increasing the number of attempts. Out of these three points, two work better in the case of face-to-face learning, while the third does not work well because the university consumes 4-5 years of life (and the university is one attempt). But the other two criteria are very important—during the period of study, the average student interacts with hundreds of peers, who can make a significant contribution to the likelihood of this student’s success.

But sitting at home with books for five years does not meet any criteria. Online education lies somewhere in between, see for yourself, it varies, but it’s closer to the option of “sitting with textbooks.”

The authors of the study confirmed the concept of “The Matthew Effect.” This is from the Bible: “For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.” (Matthew 25:29). They explain why success accumulates even if it is initially random:

People who are fortunate in the early stages receive more resources, opportunities, and attention. This, in turn, increases their chances for new fortunate events. As a result, those who were initially in a better position continue to build on their success, while the rest lag behind.

This explains why wealthy people often receive profitable investments, popular artists become even more popular, and less known ones remain in the shadows, and companies that “hit the stream” attract more customers and resources than their less fortunate competitors.

That’s why success also requires following the principle of “Fake it till you make it.” Successful people often exaggerate their skills or achievements, and then catch up to the proclaimed level. Society easily forgives and quickly forgets such things, but when they work (and they often do), the person no longer really needs them. There’s also a self-fulfilling prophecy—the idea that if a person states something as a fact (even if it’s an exaggeration), they and those around them start behaving as if it’s true, and eventually, it becomes reality.

There’s also the principle of “there’s no harm in asking” (It doesn’t hurt to ask). The principle is that if the likelihood of success is increased by asking someone a question (“can you raise my salary starting in March or put me in charge of that project”), then it’s worth asking. You never know unless you ask.

And one more thing. Act now, apologize later. Actions speak louder than words. As you know, being at the right time in the right place not only involves the right place (this is the first point from my list), but also the right time. Therefore, just do it. People who don’t dream but act never end up homeless on the street because they rushed.

And finally. Time is a finite resource. There was a good idea about the sheet with squares—google “90 years of life in weeks.” You can color the lived weeks and look at the remaining ones.

So, in summary.

Success is determined by luck, not talent. Talent helps, but is often formed under the influence of success. Knowledge is useful, but experience is more valuable. Time is a finite resource. Planning doesn’t work, three things do:

1) being in an environment where important events occur,

2) creating more points of contact with the world and maintaining them,

3) increasing the number of attempts where luck might work.

Three principles:

1) Fake it till you make it

2) It doesn’t hurt to ask

3) Actions speak louder than words

Posthumous Publications of Twain and Kafka | February 05 2025, 05:00

Today I read that it turns out Mark Twain had willed that his autobiography (a manuscript of 5,000 pages, by the way) not be published until 100 years after his death, and then you can do whatever you want. Generally, those 100 years expired in 2010 and three volumes of the autobiography were published.

I also discovered that Kafka had intended for “The Trial” to be destroyed, but it was published anyway. That’s the one where the guy goes to court, and suddenly they start trying him there.

Edible Gold: A Luxurious Yet Ineffective Delicacy | February 03 2025, 21:58

Recently, I was surprised to discover that gold leaf is edible, and when you see golden flakes on a quality cake, it’s actually real gold, not just some props. Here’s a kebab from Arkadiy Novikov and Jihan Deniz costing 23,550 rubles.

Another revelation was that such gold is quite affordable. A single sheet of purest 99.8% gold, palm-sized, sells for just 4 bucks. It’s sold in very thin sheets—about 100-500 nanometers thick (depending on the manufacturer). 100 nanometers is 0.0001 millimeters. To compare, the thickness of writing paper is 130,000 nanometers, and a human hair is about 60,000 nanometers thick, while a gold leaf is only 100-500. If calculated, a sheet is approximately 600 atoms thick. Edible gold also comes in powder and flakes.

Turns out, this gold has its own E-number, E175 (while E174 is edible silver). Gold is not absorbed by the body at all; it passes through unchanged, so logically, it offers no benefits. However, sellers of edible gold claim its benefits are sky-high and it cures almost all ailments. Studies conducted in 1975 and 2016 showed, however, that there are indeed no health benefits.

The only benefit here is to show off your wealth and brag to your friends that you are, literally, pooping gold (remember, it’s not digested). Whether you should sift through your toilet matters looking for gold is up to you…

Interestingly, even anciently, gold sheets were somehow made to be 500 times thinner than a human hair.

The production of gold leaf started around the end of the third millennium BC when craftsmen learned how to purify the metal and hammer it into thin sheets. Traditionally, during the Middle Ages, gold leaf was prepared by rolling or hammering gold ducats (trade coins used in Medieval Europe) into approximately the thickness of foil. As the metal became thinner, it became more challenging to prevent the foil from sticking to nearby moist or greasy surfaces. To prevent this, “gold beaters would lay a small square of thin metal in the middle of a paper or parchment square and other metal squares on top of it in sequence, until a decent stack was formed; then they skillfully hammered it until the small squares of metal spread to the edges of the parchment.” Then these squares were cut into smaller squares, and the process was repeated. For the final stage of beating, when the gold reached its thinnest point, a special type of parchment called “goldbeaters’ skin” (made from the inner lining of calf’s intestine) was placed between the layers of foil. According to Cennino Cennini, about 145 sheets could be made from one ducat, and a Venetian ducat weighed about 54 troy grains. However, Cennini preferred his gold leaf to be thicker and recommended producing only 100 sheets from one ducat.

Exploring Classics: Reflecting on Hitchcock’s “Vertigo” and Kubrick’s “The Shining” | February 02 2025, 00:12

I’ve closed another gestalt with the iconic Hitchcock noir—watched the movie “Vertigo” (Vertigo) by Alfred Hitchcock from 1958.

Initially, this film did not inspire much enthusiasm among either viewers or critics. It didn’t become the director’s highest-grossing or most famous film and at the Oscars, it only received two nominations in technical categories—for best sound and best art direction. However, over time its influence and significance greatly increased, and the film itself gained a multitude of interpretations—from Freudian to postmodern. Eventually, it sort of came to be considered the best film of all time and the best detective movie.

Here, Hitchcock flips expectations by killing the main heroine in the first half of the movie and the detective reveal is not at the end, but in the middle—in Madeleine’s letter. The producers argued with Hitchcock over this, but he insisted: the audience needs to know more than Scottie. It’s necessary to create suspense.

Last week, I finally got around to watching Kubrick’s “The Shining” (1980). Turns out, I hadn’t watched it back then either. So, I’m catching up!

If, like me, you’ve missed out on either of these two—make sure you find the time!

Tragic Plane Crash Claims Lives of US Figure Skaters | January 30 2025, 23:42

Thank you to everyone who showed concern, called, and texted from the morning to check if we were all alright. Thankfully, we are fine.

The plane was carrying athletes returning from a training camp in Wichita for top junior, intermediate, and novice figure skaters, coming back from the World Championship. Yes, some of them were known to Nadya and Masha, and a few were close friends. In total, 14 people related to the ice-skating community perished, and tragically, all 64 people on board died.

Six members of the US figure skating team on that ill-fated flight were affiliated with the Boston Figure Skating Club. Skater Spencer Lane, his mother Molly, skater Gina Han and her mother Jean, as well as coaches Evgenia Shishkova and Vadim Naumov were on board. Nadya and Masha were also closely acquainted with sisters Everly and Alidia Livingston, aged 11 and 14 respectively, and knew Inna Volyanskaya well. It is very, very sad news.

A similar tragedy occurred in 1961 when a plane carrying 18 members of the US figure skating team to the World Championships in Prague crashed during an attempt to land in Brussels. All 73 people onboard died, including the 16-year-old “Queen of American Ice,” Laurence Owen, along with her mother and coach Maribel Vinson-Owen and her older sister Maribel Owen.

Names of the deceased will be released. In the US, there is an unwritten ethical rule that the relatives of deceased individuals are notified first, followed by the media after some time.

Describing 20 Countries in Two Words Each | January 29 2025, 21:22

Here is the translated text with the original HTML markup preserved:

I asked ChatGPT to pick 20 countries and describe them in two words.

Contemplatively-tranquil country

Indomitably-defensive country

Profoundly-decaying country

Technologically-scientific country

Academically-philosophical country

Passionately-creative country

Eco-progressively country

Legendarily-touristic country

Aristocratically-financial country

Scorchingly-royal country

Soccer-sportive country

Iron-isolated country

Sacredly-religious country

Brightly-explosive country

Disciplined-collectivist country

Pastorally-peaceful country

Fiery-geyser country

Fjord-fairytale country

Alcoholically-reckless country

Rainily-emerald country

Write how many countries you did NOT guess right 🙂

Modern Take on Theodora: Opera, Martyrs, and Pole Dancing | January 28 2025, 01:55

I finished “Theodora”. It’s a three-hour opera in a production by the Royal Opera House. About Christian saints and martyrs Theodora and Didymus, who lived in the 4th century in what’s now modern Syria. On stage – prostitutes, pole dances, a bomb, essentially, the full package.

And yes, originally it’s not an opera, but an oratorio, meaning originally on stage there is a chorus that sings for three hours, and nothing else happens. In the production, however, the oratorio is decked out like an opera, plus a bit more.

In short. The plot. Briefly. Valens, the Roman envoy, forces everyone to worship Roman gods, and threatens to execute those who refuse. Theodora, a Christian, does not comply. Her lover, Didymus, secretly converted to Christianity, tries to save her by disguising himself in her dress. In the end, Theodora surrenders to the enemies to save Didymus, and both die as martyrs for their faith. Afterwards, they were canonized by Christians in gratitude.

The oratorio is in English. That’s unusual in itself. Well.. in English. “Vouchsafe, dread Sir, a gracious ear. Lowly the matron bow’d, and bore away the prize…”. English from three hundred years ago. I understood “Carmen” in French with subtitles better. But no matter, there are translations you can hold in your hand and glance at one-eyed, plus everything happens veeery slowly there.

So, what we have here. A classic plot on a religious theme. In Katie Mitchell’s production, they decided to break all norms at once, making the oratorio into an opera and also setting it in modern times. It turned out pretty cool, actually.

Katie Mitchell situates the action in, as they called in an Alicante publication, a “Putin-like” embassy in Antioch, where rooms function as a brothel. This is the first theatre piece to involve an intimacy coordinator for sex and violence scenes (Ita O’Brien).

Valens, the Roman envoy in Antioch, wears a red sweater. He hasn’t heard of the #MeToo movement, hence the brothel accommodates “comfort women” for him and his bodyguards. They in red lingerie dance on poles in the red room (kind of a striptease; Holly Weston and Kelly Vee).

Next, we are introduced to Septimius, Valens’ head of security. His task is to ensure that all citizens publicly worship Roman gods as a sign of loyalty. Otherwise – death.

Here comes Didymus, one of the bodyguards. Didymus used to believe in Roman gods but secretly converted to Christianity. He’s in love with the Christian Theodora, the head of the household staff at the embassy.

Theodora plans an assassination attempt on Valens with a homemade explosive. They actually assemble it on stage with duct tape and some stuff.

Septimius uncovers the conspiracy and defuses the bomb. Theodora’s punishment – she becomes a “comfort woman”. For this, they dress her up as Marilyn Monroe. Oh, actually, it seems more like Louise Brooks, but never mind, they look alike.

Then the drama continues with an escape, Didymus saves Theodora, then the other way around. But ultimately, as in all operas, things end up not very well, but specifically in Mitchell’s production, good prevails over evil.

The role of Didymus is played by Jakub Józef Orliński. He has a beautiful scene where he changes into heels and a shimmering dress, in which he continues to perform until the end of the opera.

Jakub has a rather unusual voice. He is a countertenor. It’s the highest male voice. After castrati fell out of favor – quite rare. Google it, his voice is very beautiful. I’ll leave a few links in the comments.

One of the scenes towards the end reminds me of the café scene from “Pulp Fiction”.

The first performance of “Theodora” was in London, at the Royal Theatre in Covent Garden in 1750, and this production 272 years later comes from there too. Quite symbolic. True, back then it flopped – almost no audience. But now, it’s a classic.

Sleep Enhances Motor Memory Consolidation in Piano Practice and Beyond | January 25 2025, 18:10

I have long noticed an interesting feature. You practice a piece on the piano and when progress seems to stall, you quit, but the next day when you sit down at the keyboard, suddenly, the difference from yesterday is like night and day, even though all you did was sleep.

I found a study (Journal of Neuroscience) suggesting that the proximity of sleep to practice plays a significant role. The researchers hypothesized that motor memories – the brain’s way of preserving skills and actions – not only consolidate over time, but can significantly improve if sleep follows soon after practice.

This hypothesis was tested through a series of experiments involving 290 right-handed individuals. Participants had to move a cursor on a computer screen to hit targets using a joystick. The complexity arose because sometimes the movement of the cursor was altered by optical rotation, which forced participants to adjust their hand movements to accurately hit the target. Different groups of subjects underwent this at different times, and those who did it before sleep showed the best progress.

It turns out that engaging in activities involving a significant portion of motor memories—like playing the piano or participating in complex-coordinated sports—right before sleep is beneficial. You could either adjust your sleep or the timing of these activities.

Diverse Memories of WWII: National Narratives and Perceived Contributions | January 25 2025, 14:20

Who won the Second World War? Interestingly, notice that nobody paid attention to Trump’s words about the Second World War in his recent tweet-ultimatum. He writes “Russia helped us win the Second World War” — “Russia helped the USA to win the Second World War.” Everyone focused on the incorrect casualty figure of 60 million, but not on this.

I found an interesting study from 2017. It’s a study on how people (survey, 1338 participants) from 11 countries remember the war, including 8 Allied nations and 3 Axis countries.

It showed significant differences in how the former Soviet Union and 10 other countries recall the war.

The events highlighted by representatives of the Soviet Union almost completely differed from those mentioned in other countries. Moreover, Russians declared a greater responsibility for victory in the war (75% of military efforts) than representatives of any other nation (although the USA and UK also rated their contributions at over 50%).

However, when people from each country evaluated the contributions of other nations to the war, they attributed a greater contribution to the USA than to the former Soviet Union.

Another interesting finding is that when asked why the USA dropped atomic bombs on Japan, most residents of the ten countries said it was to win the war, except for the Russians.

Additionally, the older the respondents in 7 of these countries, the more often they agreed with the statement that the USA dropped the bombs to end the war.

Russia (USSR) in the survey results demonstrates a unique narrative, focused on the Eastern Front, unlike Western countries.

Most countries (including former Axis countries) focus on events related to the USA and UK, such as Pearl Harbor, the Normandy landings, the atomic bombings of Japan, and the Holocaust.

The USSR holds a central place in the Russian narrative (75% contribution to victory). The USA and UK also inflate their estimates, stating that their contribution exceeds 50%, focusing on the Western Front and the Pacific campaign. The total contribution assessments of the eight Allied nations amount to 309%, which demonstrates the effect of “national narcissism.” Most countries prioritize the USA (27%), while the USSR is at 20%.

Four events achieved “key” status (mentioned by more than 50% of respondents): the Attack on Pearl Harbor, the Atomic bombings of Japan, the Normandy landings, the Holocaust. The Russian narrative concentrates on events that are called the Great Patriotic War (1941–1945) in Soviet and contemporary Russian historiography. Russians highlighted unique events: the battles of Stalingrad, Kursk, Moscow, Berlin, and the Leningrad blockade. Thus, despite the fact that the USA and Russia fought together as allies, studies show that there is virtually no overlap in the events remembered as most significant. Members of each group primarily remembered those events that were associated with their own country. However, this is not surprising.

About the atomic bombings, most respondents believe that the bombing aim was to end the war. Russians view this event as an act of intimidation against the USSR. Opinions within countries vary by age: older generations more often support the official version of ending the war.

In France, in 1945, 57% of the population considered the USSR the main victor. By 2004, this figure had dropped to 20%, while the share of the USA increased to 58%.

The reasons are clear: history textbooks and popular culture reinforce national emphasis. In the USA and UK, films and books that praise their role in the war predominate. The USSR and the USA fought on different fronts and represent different ideological systems, which defined narratives. And of course, all countries exaggerate their role in historical events.

Family Soup Night: A Tale of Lamb, Beans, and Sausages | January 24 2025, 22:35

Alright, cooking up a soup. Business as usual. Because the first thing they do in our diet-conscious family is scarf down the lamb chunks and broth from the soup. And when you dig into the fridge, at the bottom of the pot, there’s potato and beans winking at me. Now, just need to fry up some sausages, and dinner’s set.