For fun, I decided to make a matrix of who is friends with whom and who is enemies with whom. For each country-country pair, I asked Gemini which of the five categories the relations fall into: “at daggers drawn” (purple), “predominantly unfriendly” (red), “neutral” (yellow), “predominantly friendly” (blue), “friends” (green). Lisa said that “neutral” should be purple. Overall, the quality of Gemini’s assessments is quite good.
Among all countries, three red lines stand out. These are countries that are on very bad terms with many others. Well, you guessed Russia right. And what is the second country? Israel? No, it’s Belarus and Venezuela.
In the top five countries that everyone is friends with and who have many friends themselves, LLM included the USA, United Kingdom, Canada, France, and Germany. There is an anti-rating – these are countries that have very bad relations (“at daggers drawn”) with many others. In this rating, Russia is in first place with 21 countries, and Israel is in second place with 18 enemies. Following them, with a significant gap, are Syria and the USA with 9 enemies each. There is also a separate Conflict Zone rating – this is the sum of red and purple. Russia, Venezuela, Belarus, Israel, USA, Iran, Ukraine.
There is a “pacifists’ club”. These are the ones who have no enemies at all, sorted by the number of friends. Rating: Bahamas, Vatican, Luxembourg, Angola, Singapore, Iceland, Jamaica, Tanzania, Zambia.
I was curious, what if I apply the formula: the enemy of my enemy is my friend? What would change? This led to new colors on the matrix – logic friends.
The most unexpected leader of the Master Pragmatists ranking was Taiwan (25 logical connections). Why so? In the logic of LLM, Taiwan is a country that is officially recognized by few, but because of its global opposition to China, it automatically becomes a “logical friend” for everyone who has strained relations with Beijing. This is confirmed in the Shadow Bridges section: Taiwan has 23 connections beyond its region. It literally “stitches” different parts of the world together through a common problem.
The report “Secret Partners” – a list of geopolitical oxymorons. These are pairs that are “at daggers drawn” in official news but are forced to be friends by Gemini’s calculation. For example, Afghanistan – USA/United Kingdom. Despite the status “rather bad relations”, Gemini’s logic sees them as “logical friends”. Possibly due to common regional threats (like ISIS) or dependence on humanitarian and back channels. Or here’s a strange alliance “Belarus — Hungary”. Nominal — different camps, factually — similar style of rhetoric and common “enemies” in Brussels. Eritrea — Ethiopia: Status “at daggers drawn”, but at the same time, they became logical friends.
In the report “Most Controversial,” the first places are taken by the USA, and then with a significant gap, Russia, and even larger – United Kingdom, Canada, Ukraine. These are countries with the highest Love x Hate product value. That is, countries that have many friends and enemies at the same time.
Another report – the indifferent ones. About them, LLM couldn’t say much, apparently because they bother no one (both literally and figuratively). There are, for example, Madagascar and Haiti.
I also tried to cluster by the strength of friends and got four groups of countries.
The largest cluster. Core: China, Russia, Iran, India, and BRICS+ countries, as well as almost the entire African continent (from Egypt to South Africa) and a significant part of the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar).
The second cluster mainly included European countries. Core: France, Germany, United Kingdom. The algorithm determined Ukraine and Israel to be here. Logically: their survival depends on “predominantly friendly relations” with the European core. In this same club are Armenia, Georgia, and Serbia. Apparently, despite all the political swings, Gemini considers their ties to Europe more fundamental than any others.
The third cluster included the USA, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and, for example, Taiwan. Officially, it can be a “logical friend” to all of China’s enemies, but by “strength of friends,” it is permanently sewn to the American block. The Vatican also ended up here, which makes this club not only economic but also somewhat “values-based.”
The fourth cluster, the most compact and specialized, included countries of Oceania and Southeast Asia. Leaders: Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore. This turned out to be a club of countries trying to balance in the most complex region of the planet. Here are almost all island states (Fiji, Samoa, Tonga).
What else could we extract from this information?
Hi, I'm Rauf Aliev. 