Economics – Hi, I'm Rauf Aliev.

Mapping Global Friendships and Rivalries: A Color-Coded Matrix Analysis | March 12 2026, 03:29

For fun, I decided to make a matrix of who is friends with whom and who is enemies with whom. For each country-country pair, I asked Gemini which of the five categories the relations fall into: “at daggers drawn” (purple), “predominantly unfriendly” (red), “neutral” (yellow), “predominantly friendly” (blue), “friends” (green). Lisa said that “neutral” should be purple. Overall, the quality of Gemini’s assessments is quite good.

Among all countries, three red lines stand out. These are countries that are on very bad terms with many others. Well, you guessed Russia right. And what is the second country? Israel? No, it’s Belarus and Venezuela.

In the top five countries that everyone is friends with and who have many friends themselves, LLM included the USA, United Kingdom, Canada, France, and Germany. There is an anti-rating – these are countries that have very bad relations (“at daggers drawn”) with many others. In this rating, Russia is in first place with 21 countries, and Israel is in second place with 18 enemies. Following them, with a significant gap, are Syria and the USA with 9 enemies each. There is also a separate Conflict Zone rating – this is the sum of red and purple. Russia, Venezuela, Belarus, Israel, USA, Iran, Ukraine.

There is a “pacifists’ club”. These are the ones who have no enemies at all, sorted by the number of friends. Rating: Bahamas, Vatican, Luxembourg, Angola, Singapore, Iceland, Jamaica, Tanzania, Zambia.

I was curious, what if I apply the formula: the enemy of my enemy is my friend? What would change? This led to new colors on the matrix – logic friends.

The most unexpected leader of the Master Pragmatists ranking was Taiwan (25 logical connections). Why so? In the logic of LLM, Taiwan is a country that is officially recognized by few, but because of its global opposition to China, it automatically becomes a “logical friend” for everyone who has strained relations with Beijing. This is confirmed in the Shadow Bridges section: Taiwan has 23 connections beyond its region. It literally “stitches” different parts of the world together through a common problem.

The report “Secret Partners” – a list of geopolitical oxymorons. These are pairs that are “at daggers drawn” in official news but are forced to be friends by Gemini’s calculation. For example, Afghanistan – USA/United Kingdom. Despite the status “rather bad relations”, Gemini’s logic sees them as “logical friends”. Possibly due to common regional threats (like ISIS) or dependence on humanitarian and back channels. Or here’s a strange alliance “Belarus — Hungary”. Nominal — different camps, factually — similar style of rhetoric and common “enemies” in Brussels. Eritrea — Ethiopia: Status “at daggers drawn”, but at the same time, they became logical friends.

In the report “Most Controversial,” the first places are taken by the USA, and then with a significant gap, Russia, and even larger – United Kingdom, Canada, Ukraine. These are countries with the highest Love x Hate product value. That is, countries that have many friends and enemies at the same time.

Another report – the indifferent ones. About them, LLM couldn’t say much, apparently because they bother no one (both literally and figuratively). There are, for example, Madagascar and Haiti.

I also tried to cluster by the strength of friends and got four groups of countries.

The largest cluster. Core: China, Russia, Iran, India, and BRICS+ countries, as well as almost the entire African continent (from Egypt to South Africa) and a significant part of the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar).

The second cluster mainly included European countries. Core: France, Germany, United Kingdom. The algorithm determined Ukraine and Israel to be here. Logically: their survival depends on “predominantly friendly relations” with the European core. In this same club are Armenia, Georgia, and Serbia. Apparently, despite all the political swings, Gemini considers their ties to Europe more fundamental than any others.

The third cluster included the USA, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and, for example, Taiwan. Officially, it can be a “logical friend” to all of China’s enemies, but by “strength of friends,” it is permanently sewn to the American block. The Vatican also ended up here, which makes this club not only economic but also somewhat “values-based.”

The fourth cluster, the most compact and specialized, included countries of Oceania and Southeast Asia. Leaders: Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore. This turned out to be a club of countries trying to balance in the most complex region of the planet. Here are almost all island states (Fiji, Samoa, Tonga).

What else could we extract from this information?

Unmasking the Self-Interest Behind Global Giants and Altruism Claims | March 04 2026, 19:00

I don’t believe in the altruism of giants. When it comes to large states or billionaire corporations, believing that they are guided by “principles of good” and “the common good” appears, in my view, to be either naivety or dangerous self-deception.

The real goal always remains in the shadows. Why? Because if everyone understands the true intentions, achieving them becomes much harder and more expensive. Or more precisely, everyone does understand them; it’s just that the circle of those in the know is small.

Take “liberation wars.” When a dictatorship receives democracy at the point of a bayonet, it’s not about human rights. It’s a way to infiltrate another system and show who’s the “alpha.” There are always specific interests in that state. Simply put, it’s about creating a geopolitical “roof.” In certain cultures, respect is earned only through strength. If you don’t show dominance, you’re not listened to. But if you do show it, you get invited to the “council of elders” and asked to “solve some problems.”

If a corporation suddenly starts caring vehemently about the planet—look for the ulterior motive. Most likely, their old production method has become too costly to maintain and needs changing. But under the guise of “reducing emissions,” modernization is warmly welcomed. Tax breaks, grants, and the chance to earn on government contracts come as bonuses. Ecologically, it’s just a pretty façade for expense optimization.

Often, the initiative does not come from inside the system, but from outside. Example: A luxurious park with benches and ducks is being built in the area. Concern for people? Relatively speaking. The main stakeholders are developers. Apartments in buildings near the park cost 20-30% more and sell twice as fast. Whether it’s a business or a politician, they just support an idea that generates profit (financial or electoral) for specific groups.

Even the holy of holies—science—is not held up only by curiosity and the desire to create a better future for people. A huge part of discoveries is driven by mere vanity. For a scientist, it is important to leave a name for the ages, step higher in the hierarchy, or at least feel like a “rock star” at a profile conference. Personal ambitions move progress more effectively than an abstract desire to help humanity.

When tech giants launch free satellite internet or distribute cheap smartphones in developing countries (Africa, India), it’s presented as a “mission to connect the world.” The real interest—markets in the developed world are saturated. The only way to grow is to create new consumers. By providing “free” access, the corporation hooks people to its ecosystem, gains access to the biometric and behavioral data of millions who are yet not protected by privacy laws. It’s the colonization of the digital space in the 21st century.

The largest philanthropic organizations often spend billions fighting diseases or hunger. The real interest—tax optimization and “soft power.” Transferring assets to a foundation helps avoid inheritance or capital gains taxes. Meanwhile, the founder maintains control over the funds through the board of directors. A bonus is the status of being “untouchable” in the media: criticizing someone who “saves children” amounts to reputational suicide. It’s the best insurance against antitrust investigations.

Mass promotion of “agendas” in Hollywood is often seen as a triumph of liberal values. The real interest—risk minimization and audience expansion. Film studios are huge bureaucratic machines. For them, “diversity” is a checklist that insures against boycotts and scandals (which cost money). Additionally, by adding a character from a specific ethnic group, the studio automatically taps into that group’s local market globally. It’s pure reach arithmetic.

The world is ruled not by kindness, but by interests and hierarchy. And possibly, that’s even good—at least, it’s predictable and logical. This was all about the altruism of giants. But I very much believe in the altruism of individual people.

Tesla Ends Lifetime Autopilot: Subscription Models Rise | January 24 2026, 19:27

Tesla has stopped selling the lifetime autopilot option for $8,000, leaving only a subscription for $100 a month. I never understood people who pay these $80,000 instead of sticking with the subscription, because the subscription only equals these $8,000 after 7.5 years (considering 3% inflation), when probably it’s time to switch to a new car anyway.

But it’s interesting how much Tesla has increased the attractiveness of cars with low mileage, which have FSD, but are sold significantly below the MSRP due to being used. In fact, if you’re buying a car and seriously intend to pay for FSD, purchasing a used one could save you thousands of dollars in ownership costs.

Federal Reserve Under Pressure: Jerome Powell’s Video Address on Presidential Influence | January 12 2026, 21:43

In the Russian-speaking segment, this news is somehow not visible at all, none of the media outlets are writing about it. Yesterday, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, released a video message on the official Federal Reserve website’s homepage, stating that the president’s administration is putting pressure on him and his system, and part of this pressure involves trying to charge him for the building’s facade repairs.

The Federal Reserve System is the “bank of banks” and the main printing press of the world. Since the 1950s in the USA, there has been an unwritten rule: the president does not interfere with the Federal Reserve’s operations. If the Federal Reserve starts printing money or lowering rates just because the president needs to “boost” the economy before elections, the dollar will depreciate, and inflation will become uncontrollable.

Quote:

“I deeply respect the rule of law and accountability in our democracy. Of course, no one, including the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is above the law, but this unprecedented action should be viewed in the broader context of threats from the administration and ongoing pressure.”

“The threat of criminal prosecution is a result of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best judgment of what serves the public interest, rather than according to the President’s preferences. The issue is whether the Federal Reserve can continue to set interest rates based on data and economic conditions — or whether monetary policy will be determined by political pressure or intimidation.”

If the pressure continues or if Powell is removed/arrested, there is a high chance that the loss of the Federal Reserve’s independence could lead to a sharp drop in the dollar’s value and an increase in the prices of gold and other assets.

As Nikolai Chapaev said in the textbook “Introduction to the Course ‘Philosophy and History of Education'”, “God forbid you live in an era of changes”…

A Decade at EPAM: Thriving Through Change and Challenge | January 05 2026, 13:43

10 years at EPAM.

I would have never thought that I would enjoy working in the same place for an entire decade. What’s the secret? At EPAM, I am always evolving: projects change one after another, never letting me get bored.

I am currently on a project at a giant company: over 100 thousand employees and revenue of 30 billion dollars. Before this, it was the automotive industry — a behemoth with a staff of 175 thousand and a turnover of 150 billion. Somewhere around, there was a contract with a company of 80 thousand employees and 35 billion in revenue. True scale and genuinely serious challenges. And earlier, there were cosmetics brands, biotech, and the oil sector. In total, more than 20 projects of various calibers. Despite having over 100% workload every single day. And it seems that this year, I had more vacation than usual, yet still less than I could have taken. I traveled to Costa Rica, Mexico, Seattle, Antalya.

The point is, at each new place you learn something, sometimes from scratch. And that’s freaking awesome. It gives much more energy than if I had been “rooted” in any of these corporations for all 10 years. Perhaps, from a purely financial standpoint, people who stayed in one place at these companies earned more than me, but money isn’t the priority if it means sacrificing interest and enthusiasm. Living life at a job from which you are utterly exhausted is a questionable pleasure.

Last year at EPAM was maximally intense, and I sincerely hope that 2026 will not slow down.

Arbitrage Adventures: A Glimpse into Venezuela’s Currency Chaos | January 04 2026, 17:10

I first looked at a map of Venezuela around 15 years ago when you could fly there from Russia for a couple hundred dollars. I studied the map but never used it (though perhaps I should have).

At that time, it was the era of wild currency arbitrage, where the difference between the official bolivar rate “from the TV” and the real price on the black market reached astronomical proportions.

The scheme was simply brilliant: within the country, all airlines were required to sell tickets for local currency at the government rate. If an international flight cost a thousand dollars, it was converted into bolivars at the “pretty” official rate. But if you came off the street with a stack of real dollars and exchanged them at a money changer, the sum in bolivars needed to purchase the same ticket cost just a real hundred dollars, and sometimes even fifty.

The real fun began when intermediaries or acquaintances within the country got involved. You could book a ticket online through a local office, pay for it in bolivars through someone in Caracas, and then simply give them cash dollars when meeting, or transfer to a foreign account. The savings were so absurd that people flew business class simply because it was cheaper than lunch at Miami airport.

But cheap tickets were just the tip of the iceberg, because there was also something known as “raspao”. The state gave every traveler the right to buy a couple of thousand dollars at the cheap official rate on a credit card for spending abroad. Eventually, people bought cheap tickets, flew to the nearest islands, cashed in their currency quota, and returned home virtually rich, having sold these dollars on the black market for many times more.

Of course, this bonanza could not last forever and very quickly ended with a loud crash. Airlines quickly realized that their accounts were filled with millions of worthless-bolivars, which the government flatly refused to exchange for real currency. Planes flew half-empty, although all seats were officially bought out for currency quotas, and the government’s debts to carriers grew to billions of dollars, after which global giants simply began to massively leave the market.

But it worked for a while. I don’t remember exactly, somewhere between 2011 and 2014.

How such a breakdown between the official and unofficial rates lasted so long is beyond comprehension. The government could not quickly abolish the official rate because it supported imports of food and medicine. As soon as they acknowledged the real dollar rate, prices in stores would have skyrocketed immediately (which later happened). Flight tickets merely became a “collateral hole” in the system that everyone used while it was possible.

The Unintended Consequences of Misguided Incentives | January 04 2026, 13:30

About KPIs. In English, there’s a concept called perverse incentive, “a harmful stimulus.” It occurs when you try to quash evil, but the methods become the perfect fertilizer for it. There’s a saying, “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure” (Marilyn Strathern based on Goodhart’s Law).

A classic example is the “Cobra Effect.” In colonial India, the British decided to reduce the snake population and offered a reward for every head. The plan seemed as reliable as a Swiss watch until Indians began breeding cobras on farms for the “harvest.” When the authorities realized they were being duped and cancelled the payments, the farmers simply released the now-useless snakes into the wild. As a result, there were many more cobras than before the program started 🙂

In a similar way, the French in Hanoi battled rats by paying money for severed tails. The city became overrun with lively yet tailless rats: the Vietnamese cut off the “currency” and released the creatures to breed further, to not lose a stable income.

In the 19th century, archaeologists searching for dinosaur bones and ancient fossils paid locals for every piece found. As a result, resourceful diggers intentionally shattered whole, priceless skeletons into small pieces to earn more by submitting them separately. Science wept, but the KPI for “number of finds” soared. A similar tragedy occurred with the Dead Sea Scrolls: Bedouins cut the found scrolls into small pieces to sell each fragment separately.

In the USA, this malady struck infrastructure. When building the Transcontinental Railroad, the government paid Union Pacific subsidies for every mile laid. In Nebraska, engineers, in a single corrupt impulse, drew a huge loop—the Oxbow Route. The extra 9 miles of detour made no sense for logistics but brought the builders hundreds of thousands of dollars “out of thin air.”

But if the “loop” in Nebraska was just theft, then the mistakes of U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara were a tragedy. An aficionado of numbers and mathematical models, he tried to manage the Vietnam War like a Ford assembly line.

When General Edward Lansdale timidly noted that McNamara’s formulas lacked the variable “the spirit and will of the Vietnamese people,” the secretary noted it in pencil in his notebook. And then erased it. He said that if something cannot be measured, it’s unimportant. The main metric became the body count. Officers onsite, eager to curry favor, began labeling everyone indiscriminately as “enemies,” painting an illusion of imminent victory in Washington, while the actual situation spiraled into the abyss.

In science, there’s a radical principle similar to Occam’s Razor— “Newton’s Flaming Laser Sword” (also known as “Alder’s Razor”). Its essence: if something cannot be tested by experiment (or measurement), it’s not even worthy of discussion.

It sounds reasonable for physics, but in life, it’s a direct path to what sociologist Daniel Yankelovich called the degradation of perception. He described this as a descent through four steps:

1. First, we measure only what is easy to measure.

2. Then we ignore what is difficult to measure or requires qualitative assessment.

3. The third step—we decide that what cannot be measured is not so important.

4. And the final step—we declare that what cannot be measured actually does not exist.

And at that moment, we become blind. We view the world through the keyhole of metrics, while in the room behind the door, cobras are bred, dinosaur bones are broken, and wars are lost.