Tag: Society

The Unintended Consequences of Misguided Incentives | January 04 2026, 13:30

About KPIs. In English, there’s a concept called perverse incentive, “a harmful stimulus.” It occurs when you try to quash evil, but the methods become the perfect fertilizer for it. There’s a saying, “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure” (Marilyn Strathern based on Goodhart’s Law).

A classic example is the “Cobra Effect.” In colonial India, the British decided to reduce the snake population and offered a reward for every head. The plan seemed as reliable as a Swiss watch until Indians began breeding cobras on farms for the “harvest.” When the authorities realized they were being duped and cancelled the payments, the farmers simply released the now-useless snakes into the wild. As a result, there were many more cobras than before the program started 🙂

In a similar way, the French in Hanoi battled rats by paying money for severed tails. The city became overrun with lively yet tailless rats: the Vietnamese cut off the “currency” and released the creatures to breed further, to not lose a stable income.

In the 19th century, archaeologists searching for dinosaur bones and ancient fossils paid locals for every piece found. As a result, resourceful diggers intentionally shattered whole, priceless skeletons into small pieces to earn more by submitting them separately. Science wept, but the KPI for “number of finds” soared. A similar tragedy occurred with the Dead Sea Scrolls: Bedouins cut the found scrolls into small pieces to sell each fragment separately.

In the USA, this malady struck infrastructure. When building the Transcontinental Railroad, the government paid Union Pacific subsidies for every mile laid. In Nebraska, engineers, in a single corrupt impulse, drew a huge loop—the Oxbow Route. The extra 9 miles of detour made no sense for logistics but brought the builders hundreds of thousands of dollars “out of thin air.”

But if the “loop” in Nebraska was just theft, then the mistakes of U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara were a tragedy. An aficionado of numbers and mathematical models, he tried to manage the Vietnam War like a Ford assembly line.

When General Edward Lansdale timidly noted that McNamara’s formulas lacked the variable “the spirit and will of the Vietnamese people,” the secretary noted it in pencil in his notebook. And then erased it. He said that if something cannot be measured, it’s unimportant. The main metric became the body count. Officers onsite, eager to curry favor, began labeling everyone indiscriminately as “enemies,” painting an illusion of imminent victory in Washington, while the actual situation spiraled into the abyss.

In science, there’s a radical principle similar to Occam’s Razor— “Newton’s Flaming Laser Sword” (also known as “Alder’s Razor”). Its essence: if something cannot be tested by experiment (or measurement), it’s not even worthy of discussion.

It sounds reasonable for physics, but in life, it’s a direct path to what sociologist Daniel Yankelovich called the degradation of perception. He described this as a descent through four steps:

1. First, we measure only what is easy to measure.

2. Then we ignore what is difficult to measure or requires qualitative assessment.

3. The third step—we decide that what cannot be measured is not so important.

4. And the final step—we declare that what cannot be measured actually does not exist.

And at that moment, we become blind. We view the world through the keyhole of metrics, while in the room behind the door, cobras are bred, dinosaur bones are broken, and wars are lost.

Dreams of Power: Cocaine, Rare Earth Metals, and Unexpected Diplomacy | January 03 2026, 13:40

I slept through everything. What are you betting on 1) all the cocaine is ours now? 2) they’ll release them in exchange for a deal on rare earth metals and oil? 3) Maduro turns up in Saratov?

Celebrating a Quarter Millennium: America’s Semiquincentennial | January 02 2026, 04:19

We pass the marker announcing the start of the sestercentennial, also known as the semiquincentennial. The first term contains sester, which means something on the way from 2 to 3. The second term essentially means half of 5 hundreds. Centennial in both words, of course, refers to hundreds of years.

Navigating the Airline Seat Dilemma: Equality and Passenger Size Policy Changes | December 30 2025, 20:21

As I sit on the plane, I ponder how airlines separate excessively obese people from those not obese enough, and how they make the former pay twice as much. And how does this align with the policy of universal equality and equal opportunities? The issue causes “anthropometric dissonance” – over the past decades, the average airplane seat width has narrowed from 47 to 43 cm, while the average passenger weight has significantly increased. As a result, there emerges a rigid classification of passengers into “regular” and officially recognized “Customers of Size” (CoS).

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The main technical criterion separating these categories is the “armrest rule.” If a person’s body extends beyond the outer boundary of the lowered armrest by more than 1 inch (2.5 cm), they are officially recognized as “oversized.” The inability to fully lower the armrest without pain or discomfort to oneself or a neighbor is grounds for requiring the purchase of a second seat.

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Until 2025, Southwest Airlines was considered the “gold standard” for large individuals, allowing them to occupy a second seat for free. However, as of January 27, 2025, the rules changed: such passengers are now required to purchase a second seat in advance when booking. If an individual fails to do this and the flight is full, they may simply be denied boarding and offered to rebook to another flight where two adjacent seats are available.

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The financial risks now almost entirely fall on the passenger. According to the new 2025 policy, a refund for an additionally purchased seat is only possible if the flight departs not fully booked. Considering that the average aircraft occupancy today is 85–90%, the likelihood that money paid for a “comfort seat” will not be refunded is extremely high.

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There exists a “geographical lottery” of passenger rights in the world. In Canada, a unique doctrine of “One Person, One Fare” (1P1F) is affirmed by court. There, obesity is recognized as a “functional disability,” therefore, airlines are required to provide a second seat for free on domestic flights if the passenger presents a medical certificate. In the USA and Europe, no such benefits exist, and comfort is considered a commercial service.

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Technically, there is also a “seatbelt rule,” which is the second most important (after the armrest rule) and serves as a kind of “legal and technical barrier.” Specifically, every passenger must be buckled during taxi, takeoff, and landing. If the belt does not fasten, the passenger physically cannot be seated. This isn’t a matter of comfort, but a question of legality aboard the aircraft. If the standard length of the belt is insufficient, the passenger has the right to request a seatbelt extender, which usually adds between 25 to 60 centimeters. The mere request for an extender often gets recorded by flight attendants as a marker of an “increased size passenger.” This is a critical moment. Most airlines globally explicitly forbid the use of two extenders simultaneously. If the length of one standard belt plus one extender is not enough, the passenger is recognized as “oversized” for that seat type. In this case, the airline has the full right to remove them from the flight or demand the purchase of a second seat, as safety cannot be ensured.

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Airlines’ main argument for imposing limitations is flight safety. According to EASA and FAA standards, a full airplane evacuation must take no more than 90 seconds. A large passenger, who physically does not fit in the seat, can block the aisle or slow the movement of others in an emergency, therefore they are prohibited from occupying seats near emergency exits. Personally, I think this is just a nice reason to avoid spending extra money.

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Identifying “too fat” passengers often happens right in the cabin. Flight attendants have the right to demand that a person undergo an “armrest test” in front of witnesses. If an “encroachment” into a neighbor’s space is discovered, priority is always given to those who fit in their own seat, and the CoS passenger may be removed from the flight for the comfort of others.

Costa Rican Parade: Cowboys and Dancing Horses at Tope Nacional | December 26 2025, 21:33

It all started when about 20 genuine cowboys on dancing horses passed us at the intersection. Turns out there are thousands of them here. Tope Nacional parade, San Ramon, Costa Rica

The Uncertain Future of Automation and Employment Disparities | December 21 2025, 15:27

Everyone is waiting for a cyberpunk future where each cafe table is served by an android. But it seems that it will never happen. The automation of the service sector is stagnating and will continue to do so for one simple reason: maintaining a human is becoming cheaper than servicing an industrial robot.

Food and clothing are rapidly depreciating. Production volumes are such that feeding and clothing a “bag of skin” today costs pennies. Now compare this with the cost of developing, software, and maintenance of a complex robot waiter or cleaner. A human is a self-regulating system that fuels and updates itself. And if worn out, easily replaced. Pure economy!

In the “First World,” the motivation to labor hard will disappear. Why go to a hard, boring job if basic needs are met with minimal effort, and everything else is done by others who really need to? People in developed countries will work only where there is thrill and pleasure. Eventually, we will face a shortage of hands where it is “not cool,” but there won’t be robots there either – too expensive.

Poor countries will be stuck in the past. Their populations are growing like yeast. Choosing a job there is a luxury available only to a few. An excess of labor makes work almost free.

I think the world is facing a harsh imbalance. Developed countries will likely permanently close their borders to avoid diluting their comfort, and all industries that are still difficult or expensive to automate will simply move to poor regions. Perhaps, developed countries will become less likely to conflict with one another, as there will be too many resources to make every resident happy.

But it will be harder with poor countries. Why invent a complex robot if you can relocate a factory where thousands are ready to work for food, which becomes cheaper every year? This has long been happening and will most likely continue for a long time.

Conventional programmers in the USA won’t be replaced by AI, but by programmers from Southeast Asia and South America. Several layers of AI for quality control and one manager approving AI conclusions and automatic layoffs and hiring will oversee them. And those programmers who remain in developed countries will focus more on orchestration than on coding. This role requires even more intelligence, and only one in ten current individuals will be capable. Only, the reason for such a crisis will not be AI.

Also, I think that the borders of the future world may close in one direction. It will become increasingly difficult to enter developed countries from developing and poor ones, but the opposite will be facilitated by authorities. Africa is growing so fast that it will surely become a problem if people there are not already prepared for life beyond their villages.

The future is not about the uprising of machines. It’s when some work for pleasure, and others because they are cheaper than electricity and gears.

Do you agree, or am I exaggerating too much?